Total development cost
$9.20m
base case
Revenue (incl. GST)
$12.3m
base case
Margin on cost
24.9%
20% hurdle
Return on equity
62%
38% a year
Cost per lot
$256k
base case
Average price per lot
$342k
base case
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
Test the deal
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
$3.20m for roads, drainage, sewer, water, walls and services
$1.21m per gross hectare
On the works only, 60% drawn on average over 18 months; equity pays land, duty and legals
Residual land value
$3.86m
The most this site could cost and still return 20% on cost at these prices and costs. $362k of headroom.
Where the money goes
Total development cost $9,201,681, or $255,602 per lot
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
- Site purchase$3.50m38%
- Stamp duty and legals$223k2%
- Civil works and contingency$3.36m37%
- Consultants and fees$320k3%
- Authority, DCP and open space$967k11%
- Site holding (rates, land tax)$60k1%
- Sales and marketing$430k5%
- Finance (on the works)$339k4%
Margin by lot
Each lot's margin after GST: its price (incl. GST) less GST (margin scheme assumed) and its share of every cost. Tap a lot to find it in the table.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
Cashflow and returns
The same costs and revenue as above, month by month. Equity pays for the land, stamp duty and legals; debt pays for the works on an S-curve and carries real interest; selling costs come out of settlements.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
- Equity IRR
- 66%
- Project IRR
- 48%
- before finance
- Equity multiple
- 1.64×
- Peak debt
- $4.90m
- month 13
- Equity back
- month 14
- last settles month 16
- Interest and fees
- $248k
- 8.00% a year
Month
Profit on this timeline is $2.40m (26.4% on cost). The feasibility above allows $339k for finance (average draw on the works) and $60k for holding; month by month, the debt here costs $248k in interest and fees, and holding (site rates and land tax until titles, then unsettled lots) costs $45k.
Timing assumptions+
Presales from month 4; settlement 1 month after titles or contract
From month 4, S-curve spend; titles 1 month after
10% deposit at month 0; stamp duty at settlement
Rates, land tax and upkeep on titled lots not yet settled
Monthly table+
| Month | Land | Works + cont. | Fees | Contrib. & POS | Selling | Holding | Settled | GST | Equity in | Interest | Debt | To equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $350k | – | $32k | – | – | – | – | – | $350k | $70k | $102k | – |
| 1 | – | – | $32k | – | – | – | – | – | – | $683 | $135k | – |
| 2 | – | – | $32k | – | – | – | – | – | – | $901 | $168k | – |
| 3 | $3.37m | – | $32k | – | – | $3k | – | – | $3.37m | $1k | $205k | – |
| 4 | – | $23k | $1k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $1k | $233k | – |
| 5 | – | $187k | $11k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $2k | $435k | – |
| 6 | – | $438k | $25k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $3k | $905k | – |
| 7 | – | $660k | $38k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $6k | $1.61m | – |
| 8 | – | $747k | $43k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $11k | $2.42m | – |
| 9 | – | $660k | $38k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $16k | $3.13m | – |
| 10 | – | $438k | $25k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $21k | $3.62m | – |
| 11 | – | $187k | $11k | – | – | $3k | – | – | – | $24k | $3.85m | – |
| 12 | – | $23k | $1k | $967k | – | $3k | – | – | – | $26k | $4.87m | – |
| 13 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $32k | $4.90m | – |
| 14 | – | – | – | – | $359k | $9k | $10.2m | $666k | – | $33k | – | $4.28m |
| 15 | – | – | – | – | $36k | $2k | $1.02m | $67k | – | – | – | $921k |
| 16 | – | – | – | – | $36k | $750 | $1.02m | $67k | – | – | – | $921k |
Capital stack and waterfall
Who puts in what, and who gets what back. Equity funds the land, stamp duty and legals; senior debt funds the works. Settlements repay the debt first, then equity gets its capital, then the preferred return, then the profit split.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
- Investors’ equity $3.35m39%
- Sponsor co-invest $372k4%
- Senior debt (peak) $4.90m57%
Investors (90% of equity)
54%
IRR · 1.52× multiple
- Put in
- $3.35m
- Get back
- $5.10m
- Profit
- $1.75m
Sponsor (10% of equity plus 30% promote)
172%
IRR · 2.75× multiple
- Put in
- $372k
- Get back
- $1.02m
- Profit
- $650k
Lender (senior debt)
$248k
interest and fees
- Facility
- $4.69m
- Peak drawn
- $4.90m
- Repaid by
- month 14
Peak debt includes $204k of interest and fees capitalised on top of the works facility.
Equity always pays land, stamp duty and legals. 1.5% establishment fee on the facility
On all equity, compounding monthly
After capital and pref; sponsor gets 30%. Investors put in 90% of equity
Stress tests
One tap applies a scenario to the cashflow and capital stack above. Each line moves one thing; the bad year moves all four.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
| Scenario | Equity IRR | Peak debt | Margin on cost | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 66% | $4.90m | 26.4% | $2.40m |
| Rates +2% | 65%−1.3 pts | $4.93m+$37k | 25.8%−0.6 pts | $2.35m−$45k |
| Sales rate halved | 36%−29.9 pts | $4.90m+$607 | 25.8%−0.6 pts | $2.36m−$40k |
| Prices −10% | 36%−29.9 pts | $4.90m | 14.6%−11.7 pts | $1.33m−$1.07m |
| Costs +10% | 53%−13.3 pts | $5.37m+$468k | 20.2%−6.2 pts | $1.93m−$471k |
| Bad year (all four) | 11%−55.0 pts | $5.41m+$510k | 7.7%−18.7 pts | $743k−$1.66m |
| Full GST (no margin scheme) | 57%−8.9 pts | $4.90m | 22.9%−3.5 pts | $2.08m−$318k |
Sensitivity
Margin on cost as lot prices and civil costs move from the current settings. The outlined cell is now; 20% is the hurdle.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
Civil →
What moves profit most
Profit when each input moves 10%, the others held.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
Lot by lot
Price (incl. GST) from the lot price per m², rounded to the nearest $1,000. Cost includes each lot's share of land, stamp duty, works, contingency, fees, contributions, open space, holding, selling and finance. Margin is after GST (margin scheme assumed; tax advice needed). Tap a column to sort.
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
| 1201 | 636 | 10.1 m | $343,000 | $540 | $236,088 | $84,610 | 35.8% |
| 1202 | 635 | 16.0 m | $343,000 | $540 | $260,794 | $59,896 | 23.0% |
| 1203 | 634 | 16.0 m | $343,000 | $541 | $259,514 | $61,167 | 23.6% |
| 1204 | 634 | 16.0 m | $342,000 | $540 | $258,687 | $61,079 | 23.6% |
| 1205 | 633 | 16.0 m | $342,000 | $540 | $250,779 | $68,977 | 27.5% |
| 1206 | 633 | 16.0 m | $342,000 | $541 | $248,240 | $71,509 | 28.8% |
| 1207 | 632 | 16.0 m | $341,000 | $540 | $249,387 | $69,444 | 27.8% |
| 1208 | 632 | 16.0 m | $341,000 | $540 | $250,461 | $68,363 | 27.3% |
| 1209 | 631 | 16.0 m | $341,000 | $540 | $250,318 | $68,497 | 27.4% |
| 1210 | 669 | 17.0 m | $361,000 | $539 | $247,890 | $89,644 | 36.2% |
| 1211 | 643 | 17.9 m | $347,000 | $540 | $236,256 | $88,178 | 37.3% |
| 1212 | 644 | 15.0 m | $347,000 | $539 | $274,736 | $49,711 | 18.1% |
| 1213 | 645 | 18.0 m | $348,000 | $539 | $253,539 | $71,841 | 28.3% |
| 1214 | 538 | 15.0 m | $290,000 | $539 | $203,964 | $67,186 | 32.9% |
| 1215 | 538 | 15.0 m | $290,000 | $539 | $203,007 | $68,144 | 33.6% |
| 1216 | 538 | 15.0 m | $290,000 | $539 | $203,961 | $67,189 | 32.9% |
| 1217 | 538 | 15.0 m | $290,000 | $539 | $204,973 | $66,178 | 32.3% |
| 1218 | 538 | 15.0 m | $290,000 | $539 | $196,058 | $75,092 | 38.3% |
| 1219 | 643 | 15.5 m | $347,000 | $540 | $287,048 | $37,392 | 13.0% |
| 1220 | 578 | 16.5 m | $312,000 | $540 | $271,368 | $20,338 | 7.5% |
| 1221 | 578 | 16.5 m | $312,000 | $540 | $262,665 | $29,041 | 11.1% |
| 1222 | 578 | 16.5 m | $312,000 | $540 | $255,091 | $36,615 | 14.4% |
| 1223 | 578 | 16.5 m | $312,000 | $540 | $245,582 | $46,124 | 18.8% |
| 1224 | 578 | 16.5 m | $312,000 | $540 | $220,235 | $71,471 | 32.5% |
| 1225 | 680 | 14.7 m | $367,000 | $540 | $255,906 | $87,232 | 34.1% |
| 1226 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $282,230 | $60,908 | 21.6% |
| 1227 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $282,225 | $60,913 | 21.6% |
| 1228 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $280,876 | $62,263 | 22.2% |
| 1229 | 640 | 16.0 m | $346,000 | $541 | $261,641 | $61,847 | 23.6% |
| 1230 | 766 | 16.3 m | $414,000 | $540 | $320,613 | $66,456 | 20.7% |
| 1231 | 766 | 16.3 m | $414,000 | $540 | $320,639 | $66,430 | 20.7% |
| 1232 | 640 | 16.0 m | $346,000 | $541 | $261,691 | $61,797 | 23.6% |
| 1233 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $280,926 | $62,212 | 22.1% |
| 1234 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $282,276 | $60,862 | 21.6% |
| 1235 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $282,281 | $60,857 | 21.6% |
| 1236 | 680 | 17.0 m | $367,000 | $540 | $259,735 | $83,403 | 32.1% |
| 36 lots | 22771 | $12,294,000 | $540 | $9,201,681 | $2,292,864 | 24.9% |
How these figures are built+
Indicative only; placeholder inputs until the developer's figures are loaded
- Method (Jessica's): site purchase plus every development cost, divided by the lot count, gives the cost per lot; the market price per m2 (low, median, high) times each lot's area gives revenue; profit over cost gives margin and ROI.
- Real: lot areas and frontages, and the civil quantity take-off from the 12d design (roads, footpaths, kerb, crossovers, retaining walls, drainage, sewer, water, services) via lotfit/run.sh.
- Placeholder: civil unit rates and provisional sums (lotfit/rules/default-civil-rates.yaml; bulk earthworks is a provisional sum until LiDAR), and every input in lotfit/feasibility-inputs.yaml.
- Site purchase price $3.5m: about $1.2m per gross hectare for 2.90 ha of zoned, serviced-edge land in a regional growth town; a round placeholder, not a valuation.
- Price basis $470 / $540 / $610 per m2: sense-checked against Drouin vacant-land listings and sales seen on 24 Oct 2026 (roughly $410 to $550 per m2 for 600 to 750 m2 lots; small sample, not an estate price list).
- Contributions $22,000 per lot (authority $4k, DCP $12k, utilities $6k): Baw Baw figures UNCONFIRMED; a typical order of magnitude for regional Victoria until Baw Baw's DCP and Gippsland Water charges are confirmed.
- Stamp duty: Victorian general rate on the site price ($110,000 + 6.5% over $2m: $207,500 on $3.5m); check with the conveyancer. Legals $15,000, a separate placeholder.
- Public open space contribution (Subdivision Act s18 / clause 53.01): 5% of site value as a placeholder; often about 5%, confirm with council.
- Site holding costs (council rates and land tax on the englobo site): $40,000 a year over the 18-month programme, placeholder; confirm with the SRO and council.
- Project contingency: 5% of civil works, on top of the 7.5% construction contingency already in the civil estimate.
- Finance 8.0% on an average 60% drawn over 18 months, charged on the works only: equity funds the land, stamp duty and legals; debt funds civil, contingency, consultants, contributions, open space and holding; selling costs come out of settlements. ROI on equity = profit / (land + duty + legals).
- GST: margin scheme assumed (tax advice needed): (price minus land cost) / 11. Prices are incl. GST; margins and profit are after GST.
- Residual land value: the highest site price that still returns a 20% margin on cost at the median price.
Civil take-off (quantities measured from the 12d design, rates placeholder)
| road pavement | 2,706.1 m² | $95 | $257,080 |
| footpath | 1,180.4 m² | $85 | $100,334 |
| kerb and channel | 760.7 m | $75 | $57,052 |
| crossover | 295.5 m² | $110 | $32,505 |
| retaining wall face | 2,554 m² | $450 | $1,149,300 |
| drainage pit | 19 each | $3500 | $66,500 |
| sewer manhole | 9 each | $6500 | $58,500 |
| drainage pipe | 972.5 m | $280 | $272,300 |
| sewer main | 659.7 m | $300 | $197,910 |
| water main | 411.9 m | $180 | $74,142 |
| property connection | 853.2 m | $120 | $102,384 |
| electrical telecoms trench | 393.3 m | $150 | $58,995 |
| bulk earthworks (provisional, not measured) | $432,000 | ||
| street lighting (provisional) | $30,000 | ||
| landscaping (provisional) | $90,000 | ||
| Contingency | $223,425 | ||
| Civil and development total | $3,202,427 | ||